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Abstract:
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This study aims to examine the long-term relationship between substance abuse issues
and economic development in Thailand. Additionally, it investigates the response of substance
abuse issues and economic development to sudden shocks in key variables of interest. The study
utilizes variables associated with substance abuse issues and economic development in Thailand.
Secondary time-series data from January 2012 to December 2023 were collected and analyzed using
the Vector Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Variables (VARX).
The findings indicate a statistically significant bidirectional relationship between
substance abuse issues and economic development in Thailand. Changes in economic
development are negatively influenced by substance abuse issues, with persistent long-term
adverse effects. Conversely, fluctuations in substance abuse issues are influenced
by economic development, both positively and negatively. However, in the long-term,
these changes exhibit uncertainty, as they may depend on economic and social factors.
Furthermore, the study identifies poverty as a key factor contributing to unemployment
and household debt. Therefore, economic and social policies should be designed with
a comprehensive understanding of the structural complexity of these interrelated issues
to ensure sustainable and effective solutions that align with the country's economic conditions.
Keywords : Economic Development, Substance Abuse Issues, Long-Term Relationship,
Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR)
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