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Abstract:
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This study on the impact of artificial intelligence technology on human capital development and economic growth uses data from 50 countries worldwide, covering the period 2003–2024 for the variable Generative AI and supplemented with data on Patent AI covering the period 2013–2022. The analysis employs the Dynamic Panel Threshold Model to distinguish the differences between countries with low levels and high levels of AI adoption.
The results show that Generative AI produces effects in the form of a trade-off between human capital development and economic growth. At lower levels of AI utilization, Generative AI plays a role in enhancing human capital development but negatively affects economic growth. When technology advances and moves to a higher technological level, in the stage where AI is widely adopted, Generative AI becomes a factor that stimulates economic growth. However, such growth comes at the cost of a decline in the human capital development index. Therefore, the design of development measures and appropriate policy responses depends on the technological capacity and the level of AI utilization in each country. Moreover, although high-skilled workers can adapt and take advantage of AI technology effectively, the adoption of Generative AI may also replace low-skilled workers in certain occupations.
The supplementary analysis using the variable Patent AI reveals that Patent AI is an essential component in the development of industry and technology, acting as a driving force for workers to seek higher levels of skills. At lower levels of AI adoption, Patent AI may not have statistically significant effects on the economy and human capital. However, when technology develops to an appropriate level, Patent AI becomes a key variable that fosters the development of both human capital and the economy. Therefore, general AI in the industrial sector remains indispensable in countries that develop technology and industry simultaneously.
In conclusion, the findings confirm that the adoption of Generative AI and Patent AI at widespread technological levels generates positive effects on economic growth. Thus, building strong technological infrastructure, enhancing labor skills, and formulating appropriate policies are key determinants of whether the emergence of artificial intelligence technology, or AI, will lead to sustainable economic growth or result in economic stagnation
Keywords : AI, Generative AI, Patent AI, ChatGPT, Human development
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