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Abstract:
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This study aims to analyze the impact of the trade war between the United States and China on the competitiveness of Thai electronic components, and to compare it with four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The Contribution-to-Trade Balance (CTB) index is used as an indicator, and panel data analysis with the fixed effects method is employed to assess the impact on seven groups of electronic components during the period from 2010 to 2020. The study found that hourly labor wages and the real effective exchange rate have a significant negative relationship with the CTB index in almost all groups, particularly electrical resistors, printed circuits, and electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical circuits. Meanwhile, private sector loans have a positive relationship with printed circuits and thermionic valves and tubes, while the trade war variable negatively impacts printed circuits and electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical circuits. In terms of competitiveness compared to other ASEAN countries, Thailand has an advantage in thermionic valves and tubes and semiconductor devices during certain periods. Malaysia has an advantage in semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits, while the Philippines has an advantage in electrical capacitors and electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical circuits. Indonesia and Vietnam are at a disadvantage in nearly all product groups. The impact of the trade war on competitiveness varies depending on the product type and the country.
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